PYPL has de-rated to ~$44 and ~8.4x earnings on a single fear — branded checkout is losing share — while consensus misprices three things the filings refute: a ~$14B transaction-profit base growing 3% in spite of the checkout drag, a Venmo/PSP growth engine compounding double digits, and a ~$6B annual buyback retiring ~10% of the float a year. Forensic case: BUY, $62 in 12 months, $80+ long-term.
Altria has re-rated 27% to ~$72, yet still trades at 13x against a 19x historical average while consensus prices three demonstrably wrong calls: a "volume cliff" offset by relentless pricing power, a smoke-free option marked near zero after NJOY, and a ~$9B ABI stake buried by single-multiple math. Forensic case: BUY, $82 in 12 months, $95+ long-term.
BMY trades at 9.3x P/E and a 4.5% yield while three forensic mispricings sit in plain sight: the Eliquis IRA cliff that didn't happen, a growth/legacy crossover already cleared in 2025, and a $14B Cobenfy option the Street is valuing at zero. Rating: BUY. 12-month target $78, multi-year intrinsic $95+.
PYPL has de-rated to ~$44 and ~8.4x earnings on a single fear — branded checkout is losing share — while consensus misprices three things the filings refute: a ~$14B transaction-profit base growing 3% in spite of the checkout drag, a Venmo/PSP growth engine compounding double digits, and a ~$6B annual buyback retiring ~10% of the float a year. Forensic case: BUY, $62 in 12 months, $80+ long-term.
Altria has re-rated 27% to ~$72, yet still trades at 13x against a 19x historical average while consensus prices three demonstrably wrong calls: a "volume cliff" offset by relentless pricing power, a smoke-free option marked near zero after NJOY, and a ~$9B ABI stake buried by single-multiple math. Forensic case: BUY, $82 in 12 months, $95+ long-term.
BMY trades at 9.3x P/E and a 4.5% yield while three forensic mispricings sit in plain sight: the Eliquis IRA cliff that didn't happen, a growth/legacy crossover already cleared in 2025, and a $14B Cobenfy option the Street is valuing at zero. Rating: BUY. 12-month target $78, multi-year intrinsic $95+.
Hershey trades at 19x forward earnings versus a 10-year median of 26x, while consensus prices in three demonstrably wrong assumptions about cocoa, GLP-1s, and Salty Snacks. The forensic case points to $235 in 12 months and $275+ longer term.
Option 2 — Contrarian hook
The market thinks GLP-1s will hurt chocolate demand — peer-reviewed Cornell data shows the opposite. Combined with the cocoa hedge lag and an unmodeled Salty Snacks asset, Hershey's mispricing is measurable, falsifiable, and worth 25%+ upside.
· 15 min read
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