HSY
Consumer Staples
Hershey: The Forensic Case That Consensus Errors Have Created A Mispricing
Hershey trades at 19x forward earnings versus a 10-year median of 26x, while consensus prices in three demonstrably wrong assumptions about cocoa, GLP-1s, and Salty Snacks. The forensic case points to $235 in 12 months and $275+ longer term. Option 2 — Contrarian hook The market thinks GLP-1s will hurt chocolate demand — peer-reviewed Cornell data shows the opposite. Combined with the cocoa hedge lag and an unmodeled Salty Snacks asset, Hershey's mispricing is measurable, falsifiable, and worth 25%+ upside.